Emeritus Professor at the University of Reading and Visiting Fellow/Research Associate, Kellogg College/GCHU
Over the last 25 years the concept of a smart city, or one driven by technological innovation, has been a constant theme across the world. But on its own, critics have argued, smart technology can’t save the planet and may have negative impacts on security and privacy. Although technology could be a beneficial means to a sustainable endpoint, it’s equally important to think about the long-term planning of our cities and urban infrastructure (waste, water, energy and transport) and how to make our urban areas more resilient to current and future shocks. This includes not only the obvious impacts of climate change (an example of a ‘wicked problem’ – uncertain, liable to impact different stakeholders in different ways and very difficult to resolve), but also the increasing impact of urbanisation, and socio-economic and geo-political shocks. Moreover, ‘black swan’ events (which are unpredictable and high impact) are increasingly likely in many cities in both the global north and south.
So, how can we plan and strategise for an uncertain urban future? To begin with, we can make our cities more ‘adaptive’. An adaptive city is a concept that sees cities as systems that can continuously adapt to changing conditions, including climate change, social and economic shifts, and technological advances. The notion goes beyond the idea of a “smart city” by focusing on the ability to dynamically adjust to real-time needs and challenges. This doesn’t mean that technology is not important in an adaptive city. But it is now a means to an end. For me an adaptive city is one that is liveable and sustainable and also focuses on enabling better health outcomes.
There are two important aspects to adaptive cities. Firstly, adaptation can either be incremental, or it can be wider and systemic and transformative within a city. Secondly adaptation is a counterpoint to ‘resilience’, another important concept. Adaptation focuses on the process of adjusting to existing or expected climate shocks and other kinds of impact and their effects, while resilience is the capacity to cope with and recover from shocks and impacts. So, adaptation uses strategic planning to help make an urban system more resilient.
But to create adaptive cities we need to engage with residents in our cities to develop coherent plans and visions for climate change and adaptation and to co-create our urban future. So, what might an adaptive city look like? This is very much a utopic vision of the future!
- By 2030 we will have moved towards the adaptive city. There will be strong focus on net zero, public health and green policies which underpin economic growth. Circular economic thinking will be utilized, and walkable and cyclable ‘complete’ neighbourhoods will be created. But this will be done with full participation from citizens and other groups in our towns and cities. City visions and plans will join the thinking on cities and city authorities will respect the ‘eigenart’ (special characteristics) of a place.
- By 2040 adaptive thinking will be mainstreamed. Nature-based solutions will permeate our cities, and social and environmental value will have determined which technologies win through. Many cities will have moved to renewable power, and waste and water systems will be sustainable and adaptable. Cities will promote green economic growth. Health, quality of life, and safety and security will all be important in underpinning urban policy. New EV infrastructure will be much more common than today, and transport systems will be clean and green.
As to how close we are, we are still a long way from achieving this in many cities despite some great examples of adaptive cities such as Berlin, Copenhagen and Buenos Aires. For example, a recent research paper in Nature Climate Change found that only half of the cities sampled had an adaptation plan and many of those were inconsistent. This creates an “adaptation gap” between the adaptation goals that cities have adopted and the measures they have implemented to try and meet them.
Often this gap is because we haven’t involved the right groups in developing the plan or we haven’t used appropriate participatory techniques such as deliberative processes to co-create the plan or the vision. To get there will be challenging and will mean a lot of work in a relatively short space of time, internationally, nationally and at sub-national local city level (a multi-level governance issue).
Finally, we must not forget that we need to develop a ‘just transition’ that is equitable and fair for all people in a city. This means thinking about ‘left behind’ and ‘marginalised’ communities within our cities. Adaptive cities are about bringing the public and private sectors together, but we must also place people who live, work, and play in our cities centre-stage.
Tim Dixon contributed to a recent InfraVision Think Tank for Sustainable Infrastructure podcast on Adaptive Cities. https://cities-of-tomorrow.captivate.fm/listen
Further information on Infravision can be found at: https://infravision-thinktank.com/